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Can you help determine paternity likelihood?

I know the only way to know for sure is a paternity test, but to feel calmer until then I can at least know likelihood, right?

On March 25th, my ultrasound dated the pregnancy 13 weeks and 1 day. What are the chances that the guy I last slept with no later than Dec. 21st is the father? I know ultrasounds can be off by a week, that sperm can live a week inside a woman, and that the pregnancy actually begins 2 weeks before conception, so I find this very confusing. LMP is no help, irregular.
Poster
  • Female | 28 years old
  • Medications: none
  • Conditions: none

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Given the picture, I suppose your last LMP was on December 23rd, and your last mature ova was released on January 6th. Even you had irregular cycles, the last cycle was biphase and balanced enough to end with pregnancy. If the open sexual encounters in question were in a period from Dec 21st to January 3rd, then the guy is not the father. Assuming that the ultrasound overestimated the gestation age on a week, it again rules out that person as in such a case your conception would take place a week later. The person with whom you had open sex from January 3rd and further, is the father.

I wish you a content and happy motherhood. Take a good care of your baby and keep yourself out of the stress, as the child receives all cytokines and stress hormones that overcome the placental barrier.
Based on this info

the conception was

around January 5.